Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

USA Weather — Severe Weather Division

This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.

Issued
11:00 AM EDT Sat, Jun 7 2025 (15:00Z Sat, Jun 7)
Valid
08Z Sun, Jun 8 - 08Z Mon, Jun 9
Forecaster
Wyatt Huber

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70-100 MPH, SEVERAL TORNADOES, AND GIANT HAIL ARE ALL EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. 

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/MCVS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE PERIOD. A MORE DEFINED, INTENSE SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A BROAD CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW’S PROGRESSION DURING THE PERIOD, LIKELY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONGER ARCING COLD FRONT FROM A DEEPER, VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE UNDERNEATH THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. 

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...
A LARGE AREA FREE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE POOLING APPARENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRMASS. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0-9.0 C/KM ALREADY OVERTOP THE REGION, A LARGE AREA OF EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000-6000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH GREATEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. 

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. INCREASINGLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITH 50-70KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING WITH GIANT, DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LIKELY DUE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY. RAPID CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE GROWTH IS FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AND AN 80-100KT REAR INFLOW JET FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP ON MULTIPLE CAMS. A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE FORWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75-100 MPH ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 22Z-05Z ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS, WHERE MDT RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE MCS AND ALREADY INTENSE BACKGROUND WINDS. 

THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND PERHAPS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES RAPIDLY WITH HOW LONG THE MCS REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE THE EASTERN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SURGING OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS, WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING >74MPH GUSTS DUE TO AN INTENSE REAR INFLOW JET REMAINING.  

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST/EAST COAST...
ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH GREATEST VALUES EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LONG HODOGRAPHS AND INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.

ONGOING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES, SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS. A MIX OF STORM CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ACROSS THE EAST COAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, MODERATE BUOYANCY/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND A COUPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-EVENING.  


...PROBABILITY TABLE...
...TORNADO...10% SIG...
...HAIL...45% SIG...
...WIND...45% SIG...