Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS…

…DISCUSSION…

HURRICANE MILTON IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS FEEDER BANDS WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS. AS HURRICANE MILTON APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE SW, 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AROUND 400-500 M2/S2 BEING FORECAST, ALONG WITH UP TO AROUND 30-40 KTS 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR, FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 60-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AS MILTON MAKES LANDFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NE AND E-WARD.

IN ADDITION, RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED, YIELDING SBCAPE OF AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG. THE DEEP SHEAR, MOISTURE AND DECENT HELICITY WITH THE BANDING AND EYEWALL OF HURRICANE MILTON WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL TORNADOES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DOWN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY AND INSTABILITY, ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY A STRONG TORNADO. SINCE THE D3 OUTLOOK, HAVE FOR THE MOST PART MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...PROBABILITY TABLE...
...TORNADO...5%...
...HAIL...<5%...
...WIND...5%...