USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.
...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST. A STRETCHED AND SOMEWHAT NARROW WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND INTO THE SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH MODEST MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. WHILE RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST, POOR LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AT BEST. WITH THE GREATEST FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION, AT BEST, ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST. A VERY SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN OUTLINED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.