USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.
...OUTLOOK VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
≤...DISCUSSION...≥
...DAY 4/FRIDAY...
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS, ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF PENETRATES THE REGION, WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO 400 J/KG. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, OR POTENTIALLY A FORCED LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER, THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE PROBS.
...DAYS 5-8...
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE MIDWEST, AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, KEEPING THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW.